2024 ATAR scaling trends — what actually moved across NSW, VIC, QLD, and WA

When journalists ask "did scaling get tougher this year?" the honest answer is: yes for some subjects, no for others, and the more interesting story is which ones. We pulled the 2022, 2023, and 2024 scaling reports from UAC, VTAC, QTAC, and TISC. Here is what moved.

The 3-year view, one chart per state

For each state, we computed the change in scaled mean from the earliest available year to 2024. Positive delta = the subject's scaled mean rose (typically because more high-achievers picked it, lifting the cohort average). Negative delta = the candidature softened.

NSW HSC (2022–2024)

Biggest risers:

• Investigating Science: 19.4 → 20.3 (+0.9)
• English Advanced: 32.1 → 32.7 (+0.6)
• Mathematics Advanced: 31.7 → 32.0 (+0.3)

Biggest fallers:

• Science Extension: 33.8 → 32.2 (-1.6)
• Agriculture: 20.0 → 18.6 (-1.4)
• Dance: 24.6 → 23.4 (-1.2)

VIC VCE (2022–2024)

Biggest risers:

• Sinhala: 33.9 → 36.9 (+3.0)
• Australian Politics: 30.0 → 32.2 (+2.2)
• Chinese Language Culture and Society: 32.9 → 34.8 (+1.9)

Biggest fallers:

• Punjabi: 35.7 → 33.1 (-2.6)
• Industry and Enterprise: 24.7 → 22.1 (-2.6)
• Auslan: 31.7 → 29.6 (-2.1)

QLD QCE (2022–2024)

Biggest risers:

• Engineering: 80.67 → 84.71 (+4.0)
• Digital Solutions: 76.25 → 79.35 (+3.1)
• Accounting: 76.22 → 79.25 (+3.0)

Biggest fallers:

• Spanish: 91.42 → 80.57 (-10.9)
• Dance: 61.51 → 56.51 (-5.0)
• Music Extension (Performance): 80.63 → 75.73 (-4.9)

WA WACE (2023–2024)

WA only has 2 years of comparable data because TISC's 2022 scaled-mark statistics aren't at the same URL pattern we use for 2023 and 2024.

Biggest risers:

• Korean: Background Language: 56.7 → 66.9 (+10.2)
• Sinhala: 52.2 → 62.4 (+10.2)
• Integrated Science: 44.6 → 51.3 (+6.7)

Biggest fallers:

• Vietnamese: 64.8 → 53.7 (-11.1)
• Persian: 64.2 → 55.4 (-8.8)
• German: Background Language: 71.0 → 62.2 (-8.8)

What to do with this

Three honest reads of the data:

1. Don't pick subjects on scaling delta. A subject that rose +1.5 over 3 years could easily revert in 2025. Subject scaling is mean-reverting; the recent past is a poor predictor of the near future.
2. The structural pattern (which subjects scale up in absolute terms) is much more stable than the year-over-year delta. Specialist Maths has scaled up in every year for at least a decade. That's a reliable structural pattern. A subject that rose 0.8 in 2024 vs 2023 is not.
3. Watch what happens in 2025 + 2026. If a subject moved in the same direction for 2 years running, the third year is more meaningful than the first two.

For tutoring

The subjects with the most consistent rising-scaling pattern (Specialist Maths, Maths Extension 2, Latin in NSW) also tend to be the subjects with the smallest qualified-tutor supply, meaning tutoring rates for these subjects sit at the top of our by-subject rate range. If you're considering a high-scaling subject specifically because it scales, factor the tutoring cost in to the decision — you may end up paying $150–200/hr for the tutor who can teach you to compete in the top decile of that subject.

Methodology

3-year YoY deltas computed from each state's published annual scaling report. Subject names matched exactly (with a small set of well-known aliases for subjects that were renamed mid-period). Subjects appearing in only one year were excluded. All underlying data is on the scaling trends hub; per-subject narrative is on the relevant state page.

This piece is CC-BY licensed for journalistic reuse.